豫北地区参考作物需水量的随机模拟

河南省新乡市1971~2000年共30年的逐旬气象资料,用Penman-Monteith方法计算了逐旬的ET0,并采用时间序列方法,对该地区的ET0进行了分析和模拟,结果表明豫北地区的逐旬ET0变化趋势并不显著,周期性可用Fourier级数加以描述,对随机的变化可建立AR(1)模型。所建立的随机模型能很好的模拟出历年逐旬ET0的变化动向,同时随机模型的建立也为以后该地区实时灌溉预报和农田用水提供依据。     

试论档案价值鉴定工作的几个"误区"

由于我国档案价值鉴定理论和观念的长期滞后，导致人们在认识上存在许多“误区”。一、对“丰富馆藏”的理解片面，效益观念淡漠；二、忽略了对永久、长期档案的价值鉴定；三、档案价值鉴定是否重要是由档案数量的多少来决定的；四、鉴定难，销毁更难。文章详细探讨了产生这些“误区”的原因，以及由此带来的负面效应，并提出了正确的认识和今后努力的方向。     

结构可靠度的一种计算方法

提出一种推广一次二阶矩法的算法，解决了关于相关正态随机向量的非线性极限状态方程下结构可靠度计算问题，在理论上论证了方法的可行性，实例计算表明了方法的有效性。     

多自由度强非线性振动的渐近解

将解强非线性单自由度振动的改进的Ｌ－Ｐ方法推广到多自由度系统，提出了一个摄动展开式，求出了多自由度强非线性系统的渐近解。该方法有较广泛的适用性。     

Microsoft Excel sensitivity analysis for linear and stochastic program feed formulation

Sensitivity analysis is a part of mathematical programming solutions and is used in making nutritional and economic decisions for a given feed formulation problem. The terms shadow price and reduced cost are familiar linear program (LP) terms to feed formulators. Because of the nonlinear nature of stochastic programming (SP), different methods and terminology are used to define shadow prices and reduced costs. The Lagrange multiplier is used instead of shadow price to describe marginal value of nutrients. Reduced gradient is used instead of reduced cost to describe the price at which ingredients not used in the formulation would be included in the solution. A spreadsheet feed problem was set up with 11 ingredients and 11 constraints. The LP and SP solutions were determined using the Excel Solver algorithm. Two problems compared LP and SP solutions at 50 and 69% probabilities for the protein constraint. All other constraints were held at a 50% probability. Results for the 50% probability comparison showed that the feed formulations, as expected, were the same for both LP and SP. Wheat was not included in the solution. The LP reduced cost and the SP reduced gradient for unused wheat were equivalent. The LP shadow prices and the SP Lagrange multipliers were equivalent. Results for the 69% probability problem showed a difference in the formulated rations. The LP reduced cost was $34.25 and the SP reduced cost was $34.52, showing the respective amounts that the cost of wheat would have to be reduced to be included in the solution. The shadow price and the Lagrange multiplier were $2.73 and $2.71, respectively, for the amount of increase in diet cost that could be expected by a unit of change in the protein requirement. Some differences in precision were noted with the results. A caveat is that, because of nonlinearity, sensitivity analysis for SP is valid only for the single point of the optimal solution.     

用随机发育模型预测马尾松毛虫的发生期

用马尾松毛虫各龄虫口密度的定期调查资料和积温资料,拟合Logistic随机发育模型,结果表明,该模型能精确地描述马尾松毛虫第1代1～6龄幼虫的发育进程。对各龄虫口的时间分布,模型预测值和观察值的吻合程度达90%。对模型参数进行比较表明,除了温度(积温)以外,还有另外一些因素影响着马尾松毛虫的发育进程。     

Predictive models of weed population dynamics

Many of the challenges faced by weed ecologists can be met only by the capability to predict the responses of weed populations to changes in their environment or management. In spite of this, a review of papers published in Weed Research suggests that weed ecologists are remarkably reluctant to produce detailed, quantitative predictions. This may result from uncertainty in the accuracy of predictions and indeed, a variety of reasons have been put forward to suggest that the potential utility of weed models may be limited in this regard. In this study, we review the applications to which weed models have been put. Focusing on predictive population modelling, we highlight several limitations that can lead to failures of this approach and we discuss the likely prospects for weed population modelling. We make three points regarding the future of weed modelling. First, owing to prohibitive data requirements, the development of highly mechanistic models that attempt to make detailed predictions of weed population numbers is unlikely to be very successful. Second, data collection for developing weed models needs to be rethought. Weed models are most commonly compromised by a lack of spatial and temporal replication, preventing modellers from measuring parameter variability and error effectively and limiting assessments of model uncertainty. Finally, the utility of models needs to be better appreciated; models are key tools in making long range predictions of how management will affect weed populations, but, we estimate, they are used in only a small fraction of studies. Without the further development of models for weed population dynamics, our ability to predict long-term dynamics will be restricted.     

湘南三种典型红壤生土长期施肥对作物产量的影响

以长期定位试验为基本材料,研究了湘南3种典型红壤生土25年长期施肥对作物产量的影响。结果表明:(1)25年作物累计产量以紫色土为最高,其次是花岗岩红壤,第四纪红壤最低。(2)3种母质生土熟化过程中,对于不同处理,平衡施用氮磷钾化肥处理,均能获得较高作物产量,显著高于施用有机物料稻草处理,显著高于对照处理。施肥是加速红壤母质熟化的主要途径和方法。(3)对于不同处理方式,作物归还条件下其作物产量要高于不归还。(4)供试的3种土壤在熟化的过程中对植被的影响非常明显,在熟化的初期,许多作物在花岗岩发育的和第四纪红土发育的土壤上,都生长不好,然而在施有NPK的处理中,马唐草(Dischaemum Schreb)生长特别茂盛(覆盖度100%,高lm),明显地影响了土壤的水热状况,紫色土上马唐草生长不好。(5)种植小麦和黄豆,花岗岩、四纪红土NPK处理靠小区水泥梗边缘要好,小区中间95%部分长势差,叶片淡黄,植株矮小。(6)花岗岩红壤和第四纪红壤二种母质熟化24年后(即2005年)种植豆科作物—黄豆和禾本科作物小麦(2006年),其作物产量均表现为:0M>NPK。     

基于投资的再保险定价模型

从系统的观点出发,把公司的赔付情况与投资收益相接合,对比例再保险与超额损失再保险,建立了在投资影响下的带跳的再保险模型,给出了基于投资的再保险定价公式,为公司厘订再保险费提供了新的方法.     

非比例结构阻尼系统的振动控制

提出了一种非比例结构阻尼系统的振动控制方法.把模态阻尼矩阵分为对角阻尼矩阵和对角元素为零的非对角阻尼矩阵,将非对角阻尼矩阵视为小量,用摄动方法求解这个受控系统,可得到非比例阻尼系统的近似解析解,实现对非比例阻尼系统的振动控制.数值模拟说明此方法有较高的精度,可在土木工程高层结构的振动分析中应用.